Barisan Nasional likely to return home with two-thirds majority

TTF: The seat distribution plan that Pakatan Harapan announced is as follows:

PPBM.    : 52 seats

PKR.        : 51 seats

Amanah  : 27 seats

DAP.        : 35 seats

Of the total – which is limited to the Peninsula of Malaysia – 130 seats were allotted to Muslim majority parties (with PKR being multiracial but Muslim majority nonetheless). Now, PAS has just announced that it will contest “no less than 130 parliamentary seats” come the 14th general election (see news item below).

What does that tell you?

It tells you that PAS is determined to contest every seat that PPBM, PKR and Amanah contests. That would immediately bring about 130 multi-cornered fights that are likely to be against the favour of PPBM and Amanah. In the case of PKR and the DAP, it is anticipated that these scandal-ridden parties will fare far worse than they did in 2013 given Dato’ Seri Anwar Ibrahim’s and Lim Kit Siang’s collective decision to work with Dr Mahathir Mohamad (READ HERE TO FIND OUT WHY).

Under the circumstances, the number of seats Pakatan will win in the Peninsula of Malaysia will probably be as follows:

PPBM.    : 3 seats

PKR.        : 20 seats

Amanah  : 2 seats

DAP.        : 20 seats

Add that up, and you end up with 45 out of the total 222 seats that are up for grabs throughout Malaysia. Now, even if the DAP and PKR were to win 50% of the 57 seats they contest in Sabah and Sarawak (which is highly unlikely), that would bring Pakatan’s total win to 73, meaning, Barisan Nasional is likely to return with a two-thirds majority.

Note: Amanah is technically a multiracial party although it is Islamic

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KUALA LUMPUR: PAS said today it will run in at least 130 out of 222 parliament seats in the 14th general election (GE14), exceeding the number of seats contested by Umno in the last polls.

News portal Malaysiakini reported PAS research centre director Mohd Zuhdi Marzuki as saying that the final number of federal seats Gagasan Sejahtera, which comprises PAS, Parti Cinta Malaysia and Parti Ikatan Bangsa Malaysia, will collectively contest in the upcoming election has yet to be decided.

“PAS will contest in no less than 130 parliamentary seats. The remaining will be filled by Gagasan Sejahtera component parties, NGOs and eminent persons who stand with the coalition,” Zuhdi was quoted telling reporters at an event in Batu Caves here.

PAS won 21 out of 73 parliament seats it contested in the 13th general election in 2013, though several have since defected to splinter party, Parti Amanah Negara.

Umno won 88 out of 121 federal seats it ran in Election 2013.

The most number of parliament seats that PAS ever contested was 98 in 1986, of which it only won one. The Islamist party’s best electoral performance was in 1999 when it bagged 27 federal seats as part of Barisan Alternatif.

Most of the general elections since 1959 saw PAS winning less than 10 parliament seats.

Elections are an expensive process in Malaysia, with candidates required to put down a deposit of RM15,000 for a federal seat, including for campaign material cleanup. The law sets a campaign expenditure limit of RM200,000 per candidate for a parliament seat, though there is no cap on spending by political parties.

Source: The Malay Mail Online

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