“Kuan Chee Heng or Uncle Kentang is unfortunately one candidate many love to have but may not win. Race does play a role in voting. If the DAP is supportive of PPBM, they will campaign to get Chinese voters away from Kuan. His results will nonetheless make for an interesting post-election analysis”
Another Brick in the Wall
At the GE 14 in May last year, the late Mohd Bakhtiar Mohd Nor won the Semenyih state assembly seat by a majority of 8,954 votes to beat the incumbent from UMNO, Datuk Johan Abdul Aziz.
With that wide a majority, PPBM candidate and son-in-law of Bakhtiar, Muhammad Aiman Bin Zainali not only cannot lose, but the margin in victory is equally important.
Johan received 14,464 votes, which decreased from 17,616 votes for GE13 in 2013 but increase from 11,588 votes for GE12 in 2008. However, it was not enough to stop the anti-Najib wave that gave Bakhtiar 23,428 votes to win the seat.
The number of voters for Semenyih increased from 28,203 votes for GE12 to 53,257 votes for GE14. Still pretty much a Malay majority area with 25 to 30% Chinese.
If the votes received by UMNO and PAS at GE 14 were added together and PPBM maintained the same performance, the young PPBM candidate should win by a majority of 1,998 votes.
More so there is a high percentage of new and young voters. This was the reason Lim Guan Eng was forced albeit reluctantly to announce BR1M, or rebranded as BSH, for unmarried youth.
Any less in majority or loss at Semenyih spells disaster for PPBM.
Off course, that is assuming the less than one year Bakhtiar name carries any weight.
Like many others in Hulu Langat UMNO Division, Bakhtiar left the party out of frustration with Johan’s paranoia against rising new leaders.
Capable and potential leaders either gave up trying to do anything to arrest the party’s declining popularity or quit.
Unfortunately for Aiman, he will not have a big shoe to fill, but a legacy of a bad start for PPBM in the area.
There are murmurings within the community that PPBM Service Center, if they actually have one, is insensitive to peoples’ grievances. Single mothers seeking their YB’s endorsement for school textbook assistance for their school going children were left ignored.
In Semenyih, a source involved with the campaign said there are more women voters than men in Semenyih.
As an indication of the sentiment, Tan Sri Muhyiddin tried to do a #BossKu at the same hypermarket that was a pandemonium when Najib went.
PPBM got the seat to run last year because PKR failed to win at GE12 and GE13. Actually, PKR gained a lot of ground in the area and could have won at GE13 with their candidate Hamidi A Hasan. (Happen to be close friend and attended his wedding in Melaka many decades ago.)
Hamidi is not a case of could, but should have won, had it not for the split votes. Former PKR candidate for GE 12, S Arutchelvan ran under the Parti Sosialis Party and took away 5,568 votes. Hamidi received 13,471 votes but not enough to beat Johan’s 17,616.
The pleasant, patient and ever smiling Hamidi worked hard after GE12 and continued after GE13 as state appointed coordinator for the area. He took advantage of the lax in Johan-led UMNO and turned it into a PKR stronghold.
Bakhtiar was benefitting from the effort of Hamid, but PPBM used the excuse PKR lost twice in a row there to ask for the seats. Letak songkok pun Johan dah masa untuk kalah.
Arut’s votes continued to decline at GE14 to 1,293 and he had opt out of the by-election. Idealistic party like PSM would not be happy with PPBM’s Chairman blocking path of reform.
Replacing him is a Nik Aziz Afiq Abdul Syiah Muslim, fatwa-ed as deviant by Selangor’s JAKIM, running under PSM. His role could be to split some votes but not sure whose?
If one were to suspect he was planted by Syiah Mat Sabu, he could be initially placed to split Zakaria Hanapi, the Sunni Muslim candidate and a well received “orang masjid” to the local Malays – both UMNO or PAS or party-less.
Kuan Chee Heng or Uncle Kentang is unfortunately one candidate many love to have but may not win. Race does play a role in voting.
If DAP is supportive of PPBM, they will campaign to get Chinese voters away from Kuan. His results will make for an interesting post election analysis.
Many political games
As ruling government, there is every reason for Aiman to win. More so, as a friend operating in Semenyih puts it, there is so many political games going on in Semenyih.
Lets ignore Syed Saddiq’s cheap and childish old trick of provoking the crowd to be followed by police report. It will not make any impact with young voters.
Neither is his argument for a hospital in Semenyih. Its a ridiculous request when there is a government and private hospital in nearby Kajang.