“GE14 isn’t going to be a referendum to decide if or not Malaysians appreciate the reforms Najib put in place. Instead, the poll will serve as the vox populi on whether or not the Malays have softened their stance against the DAP. And we’re no longer talking the fundamentalists or Islamists, but those inclined to think objectively (the objectivists) vs those driven by nostalgia (the sentimentalists)”
THE THIRD FORCE
There is a general misconception among analysts on factors that may influence the outcome of the 14th general election (GE14). Some have opined that the DAP’s use of the PKR logo is set to cause an upset for team Lim Kit Siang, while others are adamant that the de-registration of Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia’s (PPBM’s) by the Registrar of Societies (RoS) is bound to cost Pakatan the Malay vote. To be honest, neither one group has a point of view that quite fits the description of what is truly going on.
But the party veterans are pissed.
According to them, the DAP’s willingness to forego the rocket denotes subordination, reminiscent of a time when the MCA’s “toothless” and “cowardly” relationship with UMNO put many a Chinaman off. And that, they’re saying, will cost the DAP Chinese votes, which isn’t far off the charts when you consider that Dr Mahathir Mohamad had all along planned to weaken the DAP.
But the weakening of these parties was meant purely as contingency to anticipate UMNO’s rejection of a “crossover proposal” (follow link below to read proposal). The minute the RoS de-registered PPBM, plans changed – Mahathir decided to pit the Malays against the Malays by having them believe that KitSiang wasn’t the anti-Islamist UMNO and PAS had cut him out to be.
And pitting the Malays against the Malays is something the senior Lim has been dying to do for a very long time. As far as he’s concerned, the only way Barisan Nasional can ever be destabilised is if there were large-enough groups of Malays willing to vote anything but UMNO. So, to convince the Malays that his team was pro-Islam, he agreed to cast PKR’s shadow onto his party to deliver the impression that “the DAP is under the heels of the Malays.”
Which is why, GE14 isn’t going to be a referendum to decide if or not Malaysians appreciate the reforms Najib put in place. Instead, the poll will serve as the vox populi on whether or not the Malays have softened their stance against the DAP. And we’re no longer talking about fundamentalist or Islamist Malays, but those inclined to think objectively (the objectivists) vs those driven by nostalgia (the sentimentalists).
And by nostalgia, I’m referring to those aged 55 and above, a group that is more likely to comprise those leaning favourably towards Mahathirism. According to the department of statistics, that group accounts for 14.37 percent of the national population, a figure that’s bound to get higher when you consider their representation against the number of registered voters that there are in Malaysia.
That’s a question nobody can truly answer – not me, not you, not Najib, and most certainly, not Mahathir. Not that the question is difficult or something out of the ordinary, no. We don’t have the answer simply because there has never been a time where a former premier pitted himself against a sitting Prime Minister for the country’s top job.
Which is why, the best anyone can do is to work his (or her) way through guarded assumptions. Under the circumstances, if we were to assume that there are enough sentimentalists to go around, we may well end up with a hung parliament, or, at the very least, a PKR or UMNO-led government with a wafer-thin majority. Of course, the antithesis to that would be a comfortable win for Barisan Nasional, meaning, Dato’ Seri Mukhriz Mahathir will end up leading a three-party opposition coalition all the way towards GE15.