“Should Anwar go ahead and move a motion of no confidence, he will end up proving only one thing – that the majority of MPs no longer have confidence in him”
Raggie Jessy Rithaudeen
اوندي تق ڤرچاي ترهادڤ محي الدين اكن برتوكر جادي اوندي تيدق ڤرچاي ترهادڤ انور
The Perikatan Nasional coalition, now a haphazard assembly of antagonistic camps, has a 115-seat majority in the Dewan Rakyat.
That leaves ‘the rest’ 107 seats, short of the 5 needed to win a no confidence motion against Prime Minister Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin.
This is assuming, of course, that all 107 are willing to vote against Muhyiddin on Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim’s account.
But that’s just the thing – almost every Member of Parliament from PPBM and GPS as well as a large number from the DAP no longer believe in Anwar.
With that in mind, let us ask ourselves the following questions:
1. Can Anwar and PKR form an alliance with Muhyiddin, PPBM and UMNO?
In the first place, if Anwar is going to form an alliance with Muhyiddin, why the heck would he want to move a motion of no confidence against the latter?
Just to create the perception that Muhyiddin got so scarred, he ‘buckled’ and proposed a union with PKR?
Doesn’t make sense.
Let us not forget that PPBM left Pakatan Harapan en bloc and collapsed government in the process just to ‘kill’ off Anwar’s premiership ambitions.
Still, assuming that PPBM does agree to work with Anwar for some reason or other, the only way he can forge a working relationship with Muhyiddin and UMNO is:
a. If UMNO agrees to ditch PAS (PAS will never work with Anwar),
b. if Anwar agrees to work with Azmin and Zuraida,
c. if Anwar ditches the DAP, and
d. if GPS decides to stick around.
But that would be stupid – not only do the vast majority of Malay-Muslims reject Anwar, they will be furious with Muhyiddin and UMNO for ditching PAS.
As a result, not a single faction will end up with the required majority post General Election 15 to form government.
Can Muhyiddin and UMNO afford that?
And can Anwar really work with Azmin and Zuraida? Can he live with the fact that his alliance with UMNO and PPBM will have too many Prime Minister’s in waiting – himself, Azmin, Datuk Seri Dr Ahmad Zahid Hamidi and Datuk Seri Najib Tun Razak?
I think not.
So no, the alliance will likely never happen, which brings us to the next question:
2. Can Anwar lure GPS to Pakatan Harapan?
I’ll keep this short – no.
GPS is dead against Anwar, which brings us to the third question:
3. Can Anwar, the DAP and AMANAH come to some sort of an agreement with Mahathir?
WARISAN’s Datuk Seri Shafie Apdal has made it clear that WARISAN is with Mahathir. That goes for other Sabah and Sarawak MPs too, though they’ve never really made this known to public.
Then, we have the case of MPS from PPBM (government block) who currently seem inclined towards Mahathir, bringing the total number from the party in his favour somewhere between 15 and 20 MPs.
Let’s take 15. That makes the grand total 26 (including those from WARISAN, UPKO, etc), all in favour of Mahathir, all desperately needed by Anwar to collapse government.
But will Mahathir agree to lend the 26 to Anwar should the latter insist on staying on as Pakatan Harapan chairman?
I think not.
And that brings us to the final question:
4. Will Anwar succeed in ousting Muhyiddin?
PPBM, UMNO and GPS will never work with Anwar.
So, even if the DAP, PKR and AMANAH decide to vote against Muhyiddin, Anwar will not have the required number of MPs to pull it off.
As such, should Anwar go ahead and move a motion of no confidence, he will end up proving only one thing – that the majority of MPs no longer have confidence in him.
