“Anwar will do anything to keep Muhyiddin in power and wants the next general election to be held in 2023. This article explains why”
Raggie Jessy Rithaudeen
It seems to me that PKR president Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim may just be willing to wait until such a time that former premier Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad is no longer his competition.
This, according to a well connected person within Anwar’s inner circle (hereinafter referred to as “Jim”), is the reason Anwar is not keen on mending ties between him and Mahathir and the real reason he insists on being oppostion leader.
“Anwar iswilling to wait it out, and some in DAP close to him know this. That is one of the reasons DAP is at a loss.
“Many in DAP know it is possible for Pakatan Harapan to return (to power) even before GE15 if Anwar steps aside and lets Mahathir take over,” Jim said.
In other words, Anwar is sabotaging Pakatan Harapan for the immediate term, hoping to stage a comeback in the longer term.
The more-than-obvious damaging statements he has been making against Mahathir and the last minute about-turn on the validity of Monday’s parliament sitting were all done to sabotage the latter’s chances at making a return.
Anwar is well aware of his flagging popularity and the massive fractures within PKR under his leadership.
But since staging a coup may not be his goal, he seems willing to let the rot happen in hopes that when Mahathir is too old to participate in active politics, PKR will be cleared of his detractors, while Pakatan Harapan will ‘permanently’ be his.
“That is what Anwar wants. Not a very smart move, because the long wait will make Pakatan Harapan supporters very angry and send many Chinese and Indians back to MCA and MIC.
“But Anwar finally realises he is no match for Mahathir and can only win if he is the only captain of the ship.”
I’m not too sure about the “Anwar finally realises” part, because the Anwar I know is not that intelligent.
Still, I do agree that his strategy – assuming it is his – is the silliest thing I’ve heard in all my life and proves once and for all how bad a strategist he is.
I’ve never said it before, so I’ll say it now – Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin isn’t in power because he’s popular among Members of Parliament.
On the contrary, he is in power because Pakatan Harapan is led by Anwar, not Mahathir.
There is a reason several PPBM Members of Parliament (hereinafter referred to as the “PPBM group”) are sticking with Muhyiddin even though they know the UMNO cartel would never give them tickets to contest the next general election.
These MPs, along with a sizeable group from UMNO (hereinafter referred to as “the UMNO group”), are dead against Anwar and will never leave Perikatan Nasional as long as he is in charge.
They are probably waiting to see if either one of the following happens:
1. Anwar steps aside and lets Mahathir take over Pakatan Harapan, in writing, or
2. The fence sitters in PKR and AMANAH – including Tian Chua and Mohamad Sabu – ditch Anwar and the DAP.
Should either one of the above happen, the Perikatan Nasional government will crumble like a cookie as the PPBM and UMNO groups are more than likely to cross over and forge a new alliance with team Mahathir, WARISAN and Sarawak.
PAS will definitely follow suit, as not only is the “head honco” of the UMNO group a “PAS man,” what would be left of UMNO would be the cartel, comprising a small number of power-crazed leaders who no longer command majority support within the party.
Of course, if PAS decides not to participate, the new alliance would include the DAP, though probably not all of its leaders
Anwar knows this.
He knows that should Perikatan Nasional crumble anytime soon, his future is toast. It is for this reason, above all, that he is willing to wait it out.
He hopes that by the time the 14thMalaysian Parliament expires (in 2023), Mahathir will be too old to participate in active politics.
However, should a general election be held this year for whatever reason, the mission would no longer be to crumble government, but to forge a new alliance to give the cartel a run for its money.
Under the circumstances, the PPBM group would cross over together with Datuk Seri Azmin Ali and join team Mahathir, WARISAN and Sarawak to form a new alliance, with or without the UMNO group.
But the likelihood of the UMNO group tagging along is high, as the majority of its leaders are dead against the cartel and are likely to be ‘sacrificed’ during the general election.
They are well aware that the PPBM group will split the Malay-Muslim vote, enough to give Mahathir the edge even if he includes several DAP leaders in his alliance.
Thus, we are looking at three possible scenarios here:
1. Team Mahathir forms a new coalition together with WARISAN, Sarawak, the UMNO group, the PPBM group, Azmin’s group and several leaders from the DAP.
In this senario, PAS will be left with the cartel, while Anwar will be left with PKR, AMANAH and whatever is left of the DAP.
2. The second scenario is similar to the first, except that the fence sitters in AMANAH and PKR will join team Mahathir, leaving Anwar with almost nothing.
3. Team Mahathir forms a new coalition together with WARISAN, Sarawak, the UMNO group, the PPBM group, Azmin’s group and PAS without the DAP.
In this senario, what will be left is the cartel, PKR, AMANAH and the DAP.
In the first two senarios, the cartel will not be able to work with the DAP as PAS would never condone it.
In the third scenario, the cartel would be forced to work with the DAP as going into the general election alone would be suicide.
In all three cases, the Malay-Muslim vote would be split so badly, team Mahathir will win. In the third scenario, it would be even worse as a bulk of the Malay-Muslims would shun the cartel and support Mahathir’s alliance.
Perhaps now you understand why the idea of “Muafakat Nasional winning the 15thgeneral election by a landslide” is propaganda at best and why Anwar is willing to wait it out.
As long as Anwar remains Pakatan Harapan chairman and the fence sitters in PKR and AMANAH stand by him, Perikatan Nasional will get to keep its 113-seat majority until the 14thMalaysian parliament expires in 2023.
Anwar is hoping that Muhyiddin will appreciate this and enter into an agreement with him.
To be continued…