Note: The analysis below takes into account the fact that Barisan Nasional did not contest the Port Dickson by-election. TTF dismisses the idea that UMNO president Dato’ Seri Dr Ahmad Zahid Hamidi did not field an UMNO candidate due to there being plans to form a unity government. We at TTF are sure that such a plan does not exist as neither Zahid nor Anwar have numbers on their side.
TTF: Dato’ Seri Anwar Ibrahim won the Port Dickson by-election today by a very comfortable margin, defeating his closest contender, PAS candidate Col (Rtd) Mohd Nazari Mokhtar.
On most fronts, Nazari’s emergence as a second favourite caught everyone by surprise and went against findings by two mutually exclusive polls, both of which correctly predicted the scale of Anwar’s victory.
The polls, however, were relatively silent on voter turnout.
TTF anticipated the turnout to be low based on feedback received from several government quarters and attributed it to be a factor that would narrow Anwar’s majority.
However, these quarters were clearly not in the know if today’s results are anything to go by.
Anwar’s landslide win clearly indicates that Port Dickson was not a blunder on his part, as claimed by many an analyst, me included.
The results show that voters are willing to put their money on anything Pakatan no matter what the analysts or critics say.
While I may have been wrong on the majority, I made it clear at a Nothing to Hide forum (video below, beginning 1:12:16 to the end) that no matter how hard UMNO tries, it is far from likely to make a comeback during the 15th general election (GE15).
Posted by Nothing To Hide MEDIA on Monday, October 8, 2018
Irrespective if UMNO contested the by-election, the fact that Anwar defeated Isa Samad (seen to be an UMNO face) and PAS candidate Mohd Nazari Mokhtar with more than comfortable majorities proves that no matter what Pakatan does, all that matters to the people is that the ruling coalition continues to thrive.
There is no question in my mind that the majority sympathises with Dato’ Seri Najib Tun Razak and disagrees with the way Dr Mahathir Mohamad is demonising him.
However, they are more than comfortable with Pakatan taking the lead knowing that Mahathir will not be around forever.
Besides, one must remember that Anwar is the face of PKR and the person many are convinced will be the next Prime Minister of Malaysia.
It follows, that if you have the majority of non-Malays and even 15% of the Malays in Port Dickson telling you that he should be Prime Minister, then, unless you have an alternative to Barisan Nasional, you can bet your last dollar that no matter what you say, people would rather have him as premier than someone from UMNO.
The results prove that the rakyat is unlikely to punish Pakatan for backtracking on its promises and are willing to wait for it to reform itself.
The people know, that even if Barisan were to return to power, it would never be able to fulfil the promises Pakatan made prior to the 14th general election even if it promises you heaven and earth that it could.
Besides, seeing the egotistical and lacklustre attitudes with which UMNO leaders are steering the party, chances are, that should the 15th general election be held tomorrow, Barisan would suffer a beating far worse than the one it received back on the 9th of May 2018.
Let us not forget, that as far as the Malay segment goes, Port Dickson comprises mainly of adult voters who are thought to favour anything but Pakatan.
Let us also not forget that GE15 will lean towards a youth election if voter demographics are anything to go by.
Given that the youth is inclined to vote “Anything But UMNO,” and seeing the way a small but sizeable number of adult Malays leaned favourably towards Anwar, the next general election is as good as a done deal for a future coalition that is set to replace Pakatan Harapan in a matter of months.
By GE15, all you need to do is work on keeping the youth against UMNO and getting 15 or so percent of the Malays to resonate with the youth, which, by all measures and standards, is not too difficult to accomplish, considering that 40-50% of the youth would already comprise the Malays.
PORT DICKSON: Pakatan Harapan (PH) candidate Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim appears to be leading the rest of candidates in the contest for the Port Dickson parliamentary seat this evening.
As of 6pm, Pakatan Harapan’s operation room showed that Anwar has obtained 10,614 votes while Pas’ candidate Col (Rtd) Mohd Nazari Mokhtar, secured 3,087 votes.
Former menteri besar Tan Sri Isa Samad, an independent candidate received 1,264 votes, while Anwar’s former aide Mohd Saiful Bukhari only got 55 votes.
Other Independents, Stevie Chan received 128 votes, Lau Seck Yan (83) and Kan Chee Yuen (62).
As of 4pm, the Election Commission said voters turnout was at 54 per cent.
Source: NST Online