With PAS’ latest announcement, the path towards a two-thirds majority is getting clearer for BN

On the 7th of January 2018, Pakatan Harapan announced a seat distribution plan for the Peninsula of Malaysia that went as follows:

PPBM.    : 52 seats

PKR.        : 51 seats

Amanah  : 27 seats

DAP.        : 35 seats

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Total.       : 165 seats  

Of the total, 130 seats were allotted to a Muslim Majority Collective (MMC) that comprised the multiracial PKR and Amanah and the Malay-centric PPBM. Eight days later, PAS announced that it would contest “no less than 130 parliamentary seats” during the 14th general election (GE14), meaning, the Islamic party was bent on contesting every seat Pakatan’s MMC intended to contest.

On that day, I wrote the following (in orange):

That would immediately bring about 130 multi-cornered fights that are likely to be against the favour of PPBM and Amanah. In the case of PKR and the DAP, it is anticipated that these scandal-ridden parties will fare far worse than they did in 2013 given Dato’ Seri Anwar Ibrahim’s and Lim Kit Siang’s collective decision to work with Dr Mahathir Mohamad (READ HERE TO FIND OUT WHY).

Under the circumstances, the number of seats Pakatan will win in the Peninsula of Malaysia will probably be as follows:

PPBM.    : 3 seats

PKR.        : 20 seats

Amanah  : 2 seats

DAP.        : 20 seats

But things have changed.

On the 6th of April 2018, Dr Mahathir Mohamad gallantly announced that all Pakatan based parties had agreed to contest the general election using the PKR logo. That immediately put a new complexion to the whole affair, with the seat distribution plan now as follows:

PKR.        : 165 seats

Considering that the DAP’s 35 seats isn’t likely to contribute the numbers required to turn PKR into a non-Muslim majority, we can safely conclude that the new MMC (Muslim Majority Collective) now has 165 seats to its credit.

Then, just yesterday, PAS secretary-general Datuk Takiyuddin Hassan announced that the Islamic concern will contest over 150 parliamentary seats (see news item below), meaning, we’re likely to find PAS contesting all of PKR’s designated seats in the peninsula.

Under the circumstances, and, assuming all the assumptions I made previously hold (including the possibility that BN succeeds in getting the youth and veterans to its side), the General Election results for the Peninsula of Malaysia is likely to be as follows:

PKR.        : 35 seats (the DAP will suffer a serious backlash for its use of PKR logo)

BN.          : 121 seats

PAS.        : 10 seats

And again, even if PKR were to win 50% of the 56 seats they contest in Sabah and Sarawak (which is highly unlikely), that would bring its total win to 63, meaning, Barisan Nasional is likely to clinch the two-thirds majority it is seeking.

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KOTA BAHRU: PAS has decided to contest in over 150 parliamentary seats in the upcoming 14th General Election (GE14).

Its secretary-general Datuk Takiyuddin Hassan said the decision was reached during the party’s daily executive committee meeting in Penang yesterday.

“In the meeting, chaired by party president Datuk Seri Abdul Hadi Awang and attended by all the 12 committee members, we have decided to field our candidates at more than 150 parliamentary seats throughout the country.

“Besides that, Pas will also be contesting in almost all available state seats,” he said in a statement today.

On the candidate’s list, Takiyuddin said the Islamic party has finalised 95% of its candidates for both parliamentary and state assembly levels, including Sabah and Sarawak

An announcement on the candidates’ list is expected to be made next week.

In the 13th General Election, Umno contested in 121 parliamentary seats and won 88. Pas contested 65 parliamentary seats and won 21.

Source: Antarapos

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