Dr Mahathir Mohamad announced from New York yesterday that Dato’ Seri Anwar Ibrahim would be made Prime Minister. In a bolt from the blue, Mahathir suddenly felt it necessary to reassure his onetime arch nemesis that he needn’t worry about being sidelined or being deprived of a role promised to him prior to the 14th general election (GE14). That immediately set a lot of tongues wagging, with many a reader calling me to ask the billion dollar question that’s probably on your minds this very minute:
Why the sudden need for Mahathir to reassure Anwar what he already assured him prior to the May 2018 election? Has it got anything to do with the spate of ‘assurances’ Anwar has been giving ‘himself’ in recent days (READ ABOUT THE ASSURANCES HERE)? Or does it have to do with the allegations I’ve been making regarding plans by Mahathir to jail Anwar by or before November 2018?
Let’s do some math here.
On the 9th of May 2018, Pakatan Harapan won a simple majority in the Dewan Rakyat after securing 113 of 222 parliamentary seats. Together with Warisan and a couple of other Pakatan friendly Members of Parliament (MPs), the coalition boasted a 122-seat representation before courting some crossovers to bring the total to 125. Unless I missed out a seat or two here and there, that’s basically a 14-seat margin upstream of a threshold that would otherwise see to the collapse of the newly minted Pakatan Harapan government.
Now, given that we have 48 MPs left in UMNO, the prospect of Pakatan collapsing anytime soon is 3.42 (48 divided by 14) times the prospect of UMNO collapsing due to the crossovers of all its MPs. So you see, even if the Registrar of Societies (RoS) were to deregister UMNO, there are a hundred and one reasons why its MPs should stay put as independents instead of crossing over to PPBM. Delving deeper into this matter, we’d first have to understand who’s calling the shots and why everything will ultimately boil down to him (or her).
Let’s start with Warisan.
According to our intel, Dato’ Seri Shafie Apdal wants nothing to do with Dato’ Seri Dr Ahmad Zahid Hamidi and prefers to stay put with Mahathir. Sabah and Sarawak, on the other hand, have MPs who are willing to go either direction as long as someone somewhere can provide them with money and assurances that he (or she) has numbers. Zahid neither has the money nor the numbers. And that basically leaves us with PAS, PPBM, PKR, UMNO, the DAP, the MIC and the MCA. Now, I don’t need to tell you why the MIC and the MCA are as good as gone and play very little roles in deciding Pakatan’s fate.
The DAP, on the other hand, is a different story.
Still, it is more than unlikely to form a coalition with UMNO or PAS and knows that Zahid neither has the money nor numbers to pull off a coup. That automatically narrows down the playing field to UMNO, PPBM, PKR and PAS. If the intel I received is anything to go by, PAS wants nothing whatsoever to do with Zahid or Dato’ Seri Anwar Ibrahim and has rejected prospects of forming a coalition government with either of them in the lead (READ HERE FOR FULL STORY).
So what does that tell you?
Well, it tells you that everything boils down to PPBM, PKR and UMNO, meaning, it’s going to be all about Mahathir, Anwar and Zahid. Mahathir is very afraid of Anwar and knows that a crossover of just 14-15 PKR MPs would trigger the collapse of Pakatan Harapan. To prevent this from happening, he undertook in an agreement with Zahid to lure some 32-33 MPs from UMNO just to trigger the collapse of Barisan Nasional. Mahathir wants these MPs in PPBM by October this year and plans to have Anwar arrested the month after (READ HERE TO FIND OUT HOW).
Because in a matter of weeks, it will dawn upon Anwar that the only way he can ever become Prime Minister is if he were to chart the course towards GE15 in the nearest time possible. Mahathir does not believe that Pakatan can last long with Anwar out of jail and wants the PKR de facto chief back behind bars. To ensure that Zahid does his part, he threatened to lodge police and MACC reports against the UMNO president on multiple counts of corruption, treason, abuse of power and what have you.
So you see, the only way for Zahid to remain a free man is if he were to con UMNO MPs into thinking that he has the numbers to trigger crossovers en masse. He knows that he can never rely on Anwar, as even if Pakatan were to crumble, Mahathir would go ahead and lodge those reports just to prevent him from working with the PKR de facto chief towards anticipating the 15th general election (GE15).
Now do you understand why Mahathir found it necessary to bullshxt from New York?
To be continued…