“And I’ve only scraped the tip of the iceberg, just to let you know how stupid the cartel in UMNO is to screw up plans for a unity government. The end loser will be UMNO, thanks to the cartel. They just don’t know it yet”
Raggie Jessy Rithaudeen
In the heyday of UMNO’s rein of power, a multi-cornered contest almost always favoured Barisan Nasional – then the ruling coalition – in traditional UMNO strongholds for a variety of reasons, foremost among them being the fact that anti-BN sentiment wasn’t that bad.
At least, on the surface.
The thing is, even if there was resentment, many who didn’t see eye to eye with government voted BN in anyway, fearing that a change in government would spell doom for the the economy and the country. But it was mostly about the economy.
The Chinaman had long favoured the DAP, particularly in Penang. To him, the MCA and Gerakan were “toothless tigers,” subservient to the whims of UMNO, the ‘bully’. But he wasn’t so sure that the DAP could run a state, let alone a country.
However, when Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim began rubbing shoulders with Lim Kit Siang, things changed.
Being somewhat of a “western icon” with tentacles running deep into foreign intelligence circles, Anwar, an Islamic progressive with two feathers in his cap – having been Minister of Finance and Deputy Prime Minister – was the excuse the Chinese needed to give the DAP a chance.
To them, his calibre was reason enough to believe that a PKR-DAP alliance could bring about a Malay-Chinese partnership far superior, progressive and moderate than UMNO’s alliance with the MCA and Gerakan.
The logic was irrefutable – PKR and the DAP had the potential to be the new BN, provided that the DAP could prove that it could run the state of Penang better than Gerakan while PKR proved it could perform better than UMNO in Selangor.
And PAS?
The party was merely a stepping stone, roped in to prevent multi-cornered contests. In the early stages, BN was still the favoured coalition among the vast majority of people no matter how displeased that majority was with government.
This, in essence, is what the establishment of Pakatan Rakyat was all about. And I bet many of you didn’t know that, did you?
Granted, it did have something to do with getting more Malay-Muslims to accept the DAP. But it was more about preventing multi-cornered contests duing the 13thgeneral election than anything else. The DAP knew all along that one fine day, it would need to boot PAS out.
But as long as anti-BN sentiment was weak, tolerating PAS was necessary. Back then, the impact of a multi-corner fight featuring a BN candidate, a DAP (or PKR) candidate and as PAS candidate almost always favoured BN because of the split in the anti-BN vote.
So the name of the game was “to increase the anti-BN vote size before spitting PAS out.” Like I said, as long as the anti-BN vote was not big enough, tolerating PAS was necessary. The DAP and PKR needed PAS by its side to make sure they could win more seats during the general election.
And then it happened.
The 2013 general election proved that the anti-BN vote had ballooned quite considerably and would grow to unheard of proportions within five years. Anwar and Kit Siang began to see that they no longer needed PAS to do do well during general elections. It is here that they began luring Mohamad Sabu to their side to establish the PAS surrogate, AMANAH.
So you see, finding fault with PAS over Langkah Kajang was just an excuse. Langkah Kajang simply sped up what was already in the pipeline, ie, a mission to collapse Pakatan Rakyat, spit PAS out and form Pakatan Harapan (PH) with AMANAH. Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad’s exit from UMNO was a bonus.
By then, anti-BN sentiment had grown so big, three-cornered fights no longer translated into “sure wins” for BN. Should Pakatan Harapan have entered the 14thgeneral election without Mahathir, even with three-cornered contests, the coalition would have made strides, though not as big as those with Mahathir.
Why am I telling you this?
First of all, what I have presented above is an entirely different perspective from the typical propaganda you’ve been served with all these years. This should tell you that nothing is what it seems, and everything can be manipulated rather convincingly to cloud your perception.
Secondly, it is to make you realise that a key factor in any general election, which is what the 14thgeneral election was all about and what many general elections the world over have proven, is the art of splitting votes that are not in your favour.
Lastly, the coalition that suffers the most in multi-cornered fights isn’t a constant, but a variable that can change over time.
Recently, before the Pakatan Harapan run government collapsed, a study revealed that should a general election have been held, the odds would have been slightly in favour of Pakatan Harapan. What this means, is back then, the anti-Muafakat Nasional sentiment was almost as strong as the anti-PH sentiment.
But Pakatan Harapan is now everywhere and nowhere all at once, with three quarters of PPBM being part of the ruling Perikatan Nasional. The remaining quarter sits isolated, away from everyone. But here’s what everybody seems to be missing – the key founding member of PPBM is Mahathir, and Mahathr is PPBM.
What do I mean by this?
Well, GE14 was all about “Mahathir’s team-up with Anwar,” not “PPBMs team-up with Anwar.” So, should PPBM decide to sack Mahathir, he will simply rebrand himself and be back with Pakatan Harapan. It will be like PPBM returning home, bringing along with it a “fresh basket of sympathy votes.”
And should the 15th general election suddenly be triggered, seats currently belonging to PPBM Members of Parliament will no loger be theirs. Mahathir will then have an ample number of PPBM MPs and division heads to field as ‘PKR’ candidates, as many from the party are already in communication with his people and no longer trust UMNO.
Yes, Mahathir will probably contest under the PKR banner again, just like in 2018. Like it or not, there will be some degree of split in Perikatan Nasional’s vote. This will increase the odds for Pakatan Harapan, which, as I mentioned earlier, was a little better off than Muafakat Nasional prior to the collapse of government earlier this year.
Why would Perikatan Nasional’s vote split, you ask?
It doesn’t take a genius to figure out that when the poll nears, PPBM will either have to bow down to UMNO’s whims or be booted out from Perikatan Nasional altogether. In the case of the former, Muhyiddin’s voter base won’t be too happy. In the case of the latter, Muhyiddin’s voter base won’t be too happy either.
Either way, his supporters will see him as the reason PPBM went from being “a potential replacement for UMNO” to “ashes in the wind.” Under the circumstances, Muhyiddin’s votes will translate into team Mahathir’s votes and therefore, votes for Pakatan Harapan.
And let’s not forget voters from UMNO that once ditched the party due to its arrogance. They will be pissed at the party’s cartel for sabotaging Muhyiddin and Perikatan Nasional. This will translate into ‘revenge votes’, as some may go back to Mahathir just to vent their frustrations.
Remember, they did it before, and they can do it again.
In other words, all Mahathir needs to do now is sit back with arms folded and do nothing, because one way or the other, he won. As for splitting the anti-PH votes, the DAP is quiet because it knows three things:
1. PPBM is going to be a victim of UMNO’s power play, which will see a fraction of voters that returned to UMNO, returning back to Mahathir just to vent frustrations.
2. Some UMNO voters will be pissed at the party for sabotaging Muhyiddin and Perikatan National and may not come out to vote at all, delivering an edge for Pakatan Harapan.
3. There will be sympathy votes for Mahathir once it becomes clear that PPBM made a big mistake rubbing shoulders with a cartel in UMNO.
Why do you think the DAP is so quiet, and why do you think Mahathir seems inclined to work with Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim? He knows, that GE15 will again be all about “Mahathir’s team-up with Anwar,” that when the time comes, he will set his terms to the DAP and Anwar as both of them need his help to win the 15thgeneral election.
See the game?
And I’ve only scraped the tip of the iceberg, just to let you know how stupid the cartel in UMNO is to screw up plans for a unity government (refer also to my live press conference below)
To be continued…
https://www.facebook.com/2128468974136128/videos/1376305399424264/
NOTA: SAYA MEMBUAT PENGUMUMAN-PENGUMUMAN PENTING DARI MASA KE SEMASA EKSKLUSIF MENERUSI SALURAN TELEGRAM BERIKUT:
BAHAGIAN SATU HINGGA SEBELAS:
Komplot tumbangkan kerajaan Muhyiddin (Bahagian Satu): Jom mula dari awal…
Komplot tumbangkan kerajaan Muhyiddin (Bahagian Dua): Cara Azmin ‘diperangkap’…
Komplot tumbangkan kerajaan Muhyiddin (Bahagian Lima): Impian Azmin menjadi Perdana Menteri…
Bahagian Lapan: Rancangan membentuk parti ‘UMNO-Bersatu’ untuk sisihkan terus Najib
Bahagian Dua Belas: Pembentukan gabungan perpaduan baharu tanpa Anwar, puak kartel
Mengapa politik bergolak lagi, sampai bila pemimpin Melayu-Islam nak bergaduh?
