“Catch me tomorrow (Tuesday, 26th of May 2020) at 5 pm, live via the Raggie Jessy Rithaudeen Facebook page (click here) where I reveal what Anwar is really up to”
Raggie Jessy Rithaudeen
بهاڬين سمبيلن بلس: بوكن محضير، بوكن انور، تاڤي…
Let’s put aside for the moment details on who is with who, how many factions there are in UMNO or how many Members of Parliament from PPBM are having discussions with Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad.
Sure, we could go into these details as I have these past few weeks. But sometimes, it pays to just “jump the gun,” fix an outcome and work out the most likely scenario that would ensue.
I’ve said it – 24 hours is a very long time in politics. Nothing is ever black and white. If I were to tell you that Datuk Seri Najib Tun Razak is not on board with Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin – and he isn’t – things could change tomorrow.
Likewise, if I were to name all PPBM MPs and division heads that are most likely to latch on to Mahathir’s coattails the moment parliament is dissolved, it would be based on prevailing circumstances.
So why name them?
Circumstances change, as do alliances. This is precisely why the series I’ve been working on these past few weeks is open-ended and can only wrap up once the 15thgeneral election is over.
So, just for today, we’re going to jump the gun. We’re going to assume an outcome (one that is plausible, though not necessarily probable) and fill in the blanks.
The assumption is as follows – PPBM decides to stick on with Muafakat Nasional and enters the 15thgeneral election as an “equal partner.”
Of course, the brighter half of you know that this is akin to committing suicide after having spent months dancing with wolves.
But hey, we’re jumping the gun here, and we’re assuming that everyone in PPBM smoked weed before attending a pre-election meeting to discuss seat allocations.
Due to the weed, everyone in PPBM grinned ear-to-ear as UMNO – the supplier – chaired the meeting, refusing to part with more than 10 or 15 of its traditional seats for the general election contest.
Over to the ‘other side’, we have team Mahathir, Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim, Lim Guan Eng and Mohamad Sabu.
Let’s assume that Anwar too had weed before entering into a written agreement with Mahathir. According to the agreement, neither of them will be named Pakatan Harapan candidate for the role of Prime Minister while on the campaign trail.
Actually, that would be a very stupid move to make, and we’re about to find out why.
Still, such a move would increase Pakatan Harapan’s chances of winning the general election, particularly if the DAP commits to “minimizing its role in government.”
Mahathir and Anwar further agree that the decision on premiership be left exclusively to the Yang di-Pertuan Agong without interference from any one party leader.
What do you think will happen?
Here’s one possibility, which, in my earnest opinion, is more of a certainty than it is anything else:
1. Pakatan Harapan will win the 15thgeneral election, hands down.
Remember, all Pakatan Harapan needs is small but significant swing (15 -20 per cent) of the Malay-Muslim vote to secure a comfortable majority.
2. Pakatan Harapan will benefit from a bad split in that vote due to resentment by the majority of PPBM supporters, furious that Muhyiddin agreed to bend down for UMNO.
Note, a small percentage of these supporters (hereinafter referred to as the “pro-PPBM group”) may refrain from voting, which ends up being a plus point for Pakatan Harapan.
3. Pakatan Harapan will benefit from a 10- 15 per cent split in the pro-UMNO vote (hereinafter referred to as the “pro-UMNO group).
For the record, this group comprises moderates who ditched UMNO during the 14thgeneral election due to its arrogance but returned following the establishment of Muafakat Nasional.
Should UMNO victimize PPBM after being presented a chance by Muhyiddin to reestablish itself at the vanguard of Malaysian politics, a sizeable number from this group may not come out to vote at all.
4. The remaining faction will probably end up voting for Pakatan Harapan, seeing that Mahathir agreed to step aside and let the Agong decide who becomes Prime Minister.
This is likely to be the case even if Muhyiddin is named Perikatan Nasional’s preferred candidate for the role of Prime Minister.
Believe me, nobody wants a lame duck Prime Minister who’d probably be on a leash.
5. The majority from the pro-PPBM group is likely to vote for Pakatan Harapan, seeing that Anwar also agreed to let the Agong decide who gets to become Prime Minister.
6. The Agong will probably get both Pakatan Harapan and Perikatan Nasional to submit three names each for the role of Prime Minister, as neither Mahathir nor Anwar is likely to succeed in getting majority support from Members of Parliament.
Yes, Anwar will never cease to “play politics,” and the Agong knows this.
7. Under the circumstances, team Mahathir – which is likely to have a bigger representation in parliament, perhaps even becoming “the new PPBM” – will refrain from supporting Anwar when meeting face to face with the Agong.
8. Bearing this in mind, if I were Anwar or Mahathir, I would tell the Agong that I prefer a “third candidate.”
9. In the case of Mahathir, that candidate would most likely be Datuk Seri Mukhriz Mahathir, whose name would probably be included in Pakatan Harapan’s list of “potential Prime Mnisters.”
10 And Anwar?
11. He will get PKR to throw its weight behind Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin for two distinct reasons – first, to prevent Mukhriz from becoming Prime Minister, and second, to ensure that Perikatan Nasional would forever be split.
12. Thus, it would be the first time in Malaysian history that a candidate from a minority coalition would get majority support from Members of Parliament to assume the role of Prime Minister.
13. Anwar would then sit and wait, hoping, as he is now, that Muhyiddin would rope PKR into Perikatan Nasional by persuading PAS to let bygones be bygones.
Interesting, is it not?
I ran this through two prominent constitutional experts and political analysts, and both seem to agree that it is entirely possible – assuming, of course, that everyone in PPBM smoked weed before attending a pre-election meeting to discuss seat allocations.
I’ll be back on Friday with yet another episode of “what would happen should PPBM stick with Muafakat Nasional.”
It sure as hell beats pretending to know what is happening in minute detail and announcing it as if I myself attended Perikatan Nasional and Pakatan Harapan meetings.
To be continued…
NOTA: SAYA MEMBUAT PENGUMUMAN-PENGUMUMAN PENTING DARI MASA KE SEMASA EKSKLUSIF MENERUSI SALURAN TELEGRAM BERIKUT:
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